Donald Trump loves the win for the “leave” side in the Brexit vote. He thinks that a fearmongering nativist campaign can win the U.S. presidential election. He’s wrong.
Why? Because there aren’t enough white people in the U.S. to make him right.
Trump is going to receive a majority of the white vote on November 8. But American elections don’t automatically go the way that white people vote; if they did, we would have had one-party Republican rule since 1972.
The most important electoral difference between the U.S. and the UK is that the U.S. is much more diverse: It’s only 69% white, compared with the UK, which is 87% white. So while white people might be able to drive the outcome of a referendum in the UK, they can’t drive the outcome of a presidential election in the U.S. Just ask Barack Obama, who was elected president in 2012 with just 39% of the white vote.
On top of that, Trump hasn’t tapped into Americans of color in the same way that the pro-Brexit forces did. The leave side won in Britain because 27% of black Britons voted to leave, along with 30% of British Muslims, and fully one-third of British Asians. Trump doesn’t have anything like that support among U.S. minorities.
So, if you’re fearful that Trump might become president, be thankful that white people are a fading force in U.S. politics. It’s people of color who are going to ensure that Hillary Clinton becomes the next president of the United States.